Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Techno-Economic Reassessment for Tropical Island Microgrids in the Era of Advanced Heat Exchangers

Gérard Nihous1, Takeshi Yasunaga2
1 Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
2 Institute of Ocean Energy, Saga University, Saga 840-8502, Japan
Published: 2026-05-08 · IJEER Vol. 1, No. 1 (2026)

Abstract

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) has long been considered technically feasible but economically marginal. We present a comprehensive techno-economic reassessment incorporating recent advances in compact titanium plate-fin heat exchangers (CPFHX), ammonia/CO₂ cascade working fluids, and deep-water polyethylene cold-water pipes. For a 10 MW closed-cycle OTEC plant serving a tropical island microgrid (ΔT = 22°C), our analysis projects a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $0.138/kWh — a 45% reduction from previous estimates — with a capacity factor of 92% providing baseload power. When accounting for desalinated water co-production (4,800 m³/day) and cold-water air conditioning credits, the effective LCOE drops to $0.096/kWh, making OTEC competitive with diesel generation ($0.25-0.40/kWh) that currently powers most tropical island communities.

Keywords: ocean thermal energy, OTEC, renewable energy, island microgrids, techno-economic analysis

1. Introduction

The tropical ocean stores an immense reservoir of solar energy in its warm surface waters (24-29°C), while cold deep water (4-6°C) lies at depths of 800-1,000 m. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) exploits this temperature difference to drive a Rankine cycle, producing clean, continuous baseload electricity. With a theoretical resource of 3-5 TW globally, OTEC could power all coastal tropical nations many times over. Despite successful pilot demonstrations — Makai Ocean Engineering operated a 105 kW grid-connected OTEC plant in Hawaii from 2015-2019 — commercialization has been stymied by high capital costs driven primarily by heat exchangers and the cold-water pipe.

2. Technology Advances

Three recent innovations substantially change OTEC economics: (1) Compact titanium plate-fin heat exchangers (CPFHX) achieve 3× higher heat transfer coefficients than shell-and-tube designs at 40% lower cost per kW; (2) ammonia/CO₂ cascade cycles improve net power output by 18% compared to single-fluid ammonia cycles for ΔT < 24°C; and (3) high-density polyethylene (HDPE) cold-water pipes manufactured by continuous extrusion reduce installation cost by 55% compared to fiberglass reinforced plastic.

3. Economic Analysis

Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) with triangular distributions on key cost parameters yields an LCOE range of $0.112-0.168/kWh (P10-P90) for the 10 MW reference plant. Capital cost is dominated by the cold-water pipe (28%), heat exchangers (24%), and platform/mooring (18%).

000000.032Cold-water pipe0.024Heat exchangers0.018Platform0.008Working fluid0.012O&M costs0.015Discount rateLCOE Impact ($/kWh per ±20%)
Figure 1. LCOE sensitivity to key cost parameters: tornado chart showing ±20% variation impact

4. Conclusions

OTEC has reached an economic inflection point where modern heat exchanger and pipe technologies make it cost-competitive with diesel generation for tropical island communities. As a 24/7 baseload renewable source co-producing fresh water and cold water for air conditioning, OTEC offers a uniquely holistic energy-water-cooling solution for small island developing states facing climate change, water scarcity, and imported fuel dependence.

References

  1. Vega, L. A. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Primer. Marine Technology Society Journal 2002, 36, 25-35.
  2. Nihous, G. C. An Estimate of Atlantic Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Resources. Ocean Engineering 2007, 34, 2210-2221.
  3. Yang, M. H.; Yeh, R. H. Analysis of Optimization in an OTEC Plant Using Organic Rankine Cycle. Renewable Energy 2014, 68, 25-34.
  4. Rajagopalan, K.; Nihous, G. C. Estimates of Global Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Resources. Renewable Energy 2013, 50, 532-540.

This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).